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Section 7: Conclusion


China and the World: Scenarios to 2025


Given the importance of China today, there can

Wild cards are low probability events which

be no doubt that the determination of Chinese

would have a significant impact if they were to

leadership to maintain the course of reform will

occur. In the case of China they could include :

be a decisive factor in the global future. It is

A possible Taiwan conflict :

equally true that the support of other global

How would China react if Taiwan were to

players and their preparedness to welcome

declare independence ? For many years

China in its gradual rise in greatness will have a

independence was not an issue as the

direct impact on how China emerges. Given the

Kuomintang rulers of Taiwan claimed they

close connection between China and global

were the real government of China and

welfare, these scenarios indicate that outsiders

had no interest in relinquishing their claim

must appreciate the scale of the challenges

on sovereignty. But independence has

faced by the government in Beijing, and that

become an issue with the rise of generations

those in China need to comprehend the

born and raised on the island. They have

sensitivities of outsiders to its rise.

successfully established democratic rule and some do not want to be subject to rule

Raising awareness of differing sensitivities is an important role that scenarios can play.

from a distant capital. The implications of

The aim is certainly not to pretend that the

any conflict with Taiwan would depend in

scenarios predict the future. One cannot expect

part on the reaction of the United States.

any of these scenarios to come true as they

Natural catastrophe :

stand. Rather the scenarios use available

What happens if Beijing is hit by a major

knowledge to sketch the boundaries of the

earthquake? China is located in one of the

plausible. In so doing, they can help the reader

most active seismic regions of the world

better understand what could happen and how

and has in the last 30 years been shaken

single headlines in the media may reflect

by numerous earthquakes killing at least

more fundamental changes.

750,000 people. There will no doubt be earthquakes in China in the next twenty years but the likelihood of one that disrupts
Beijing’s ability to function is low. If a severe earthquake were to lead to a temporary power vacuum, or the ensuing damage were not properly cleared up, it could be a source of major instability.


China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Having read the scenarios, it is possible to

Others could include :

ask after each one : “If this world were to come

Health crises and epidemics,

about, what would it mean for me?” By living the

aggravated by the breakdown of the rural

future in advance, it is possible for governments,

health system;

businesses and non-governmental organizations

Financial crises and bank failures,

to build robust strategies and policies that would

aggravated by insufficient transparency and

work in all scenarios. Indeed, it is even possible

political pressures on those lending money ;

to develop an early warning system on the basis

Mass social unrest where largely

of the scenarios to give advance notice if a trend

separate demonstrations meld into a single

becomes perceptible, thus gaining a competitive

mass protest.

Section 7: Conclusion

These are just two of many possible wild cards.


It is our hope that the scenarios will stimulate
Each of these could have a major impact if they

an engaged discussion. Making explicit a number

occurred, at least opening new possible futures

of issues may in itself cause change for good.

or ruling out others.


China and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Annex: Recommended Reading

Annex : Recommended Reading
Barton, D. 2004. Facing China. The McKinsey
Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today.

International Energy Agency. 2004. World Energy
Outlook 2004. France.

Bekier, Matthias M., Richard Huang, and
Gregory P. Wilson. 2005. How to fix China’s banking system. The McKinsey Quarterly 2005.
Number 1.

Ministry of Health Report on China's Healthcare
System and Reform. 2005. (Executive Summary, unofficial translation). August.

Bloom, Erik, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane
Carangal-San Jose. 2005. Potential Economic
Impact of an Avian Flu Pandemic on Asia.
ERD Policy Brief Series No. 42. Manila : Asian
Development Bank. November.
Brahm, Laurence J. 2001. China’s Century: The
Awakening of the Next Economic Powerhouse.
Singapore : John Wiley & Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
Chen, Kun, and Martin Kenney. 2005.
University/Research Institute-Industry Linkages in Two Chinese Cities : Commercializing
Technological Innovation. To be presented at
“Universities as Drivers of the Urban Economies in Asia” sponsored by the World Bank and
Social Research Council. 24-25 May.
Courrier International. 2005. La Chine des
Chinois. Hors-Série, Juin-Juillet-Août. France.
Crane, Keith, Roger Cliff, Evan Medeiros,
James Mulvenon, and William Overholt. 2005.
Modernizing China’s Military: Opportunities and
Constraints. RAND Corporation.
Economy, Elizabeth C. 2004. The River Runs
Black: The environmental challenge to China’s future. Ithaca & London: Cornell University Press.
Hale, David (Hale Advisers, LLC). 2005. China’s
Currency Conundrum. Central Banking Volume
XVI No.1. London: Central Banking Publications.


Morgan Stanley Equity Research. 2004.
New Tigers of Asia. India and China: A Special
Economic Analysis. Asia/Pacific, 26 July.
OECD. 2005. Economic Surveys China. France.
OECD. 2005. Promoting IPR Policy and
Enforcement in China: Summary of OECD-China dialogues on intellectual Property Rights Policy and Enforcement. France.
Orr, Gordon R. 2004. The aging of China. The
McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition: China today. Panitchpakdi, Supachai, and Mark L. Clifford.
2002. China and the WTO: Changing China,
Changing World Trade. Singapore : John Wiley
& Sons (Asia) Pte Ltd.
Pitsilis, Emmanuel V., Jonathan R. Woetzel, and
Jeffrey Wong. 2004. Checking China’s vital signs.
The McKinsey Quarterly 2004 special edition:
China today.
Poole, Philip, and the Emerging Markets
Economics Team, HSBC Global Research. 2005.
The Dragon and the Bear. Eurasia’s Nexus,
Emerging Markets Primal Knowledge. Macro :
United Kingdom, March.
Ramo, Joshua Cooper. 2004. The Beijing
Consensus. London: The Foreign Policy Centre.

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Shambaugh, David. 2005. Rising Dragon and the American Eagle – Part I, “China's growing economic power and diplomatic clout may portend a turning of the tide against the US in Asia”. YaleGlobal Online. New Haven,
Connecticut : Yale Center for the Study of
Globalization, 20 April.
Smil, Vaclav. 2004. China’s Past, China’s Future: energy, food, environment. New York, NY and
Great Britain : RoutledgeCurzon.
Story, Jonathan. 2003. China : The race to market. Great Britain : Prentice Hall.

The Economist. 2004. Survey : Business in
China. 18 March.
The Economist. 2005. Survey : India and China.
3 March.
UBS Securities Asia Ltd, UBS Investment
Research. 2005. How to Think About China.
Asian Economic Perspectives. Hong Kong.
6 January.

Annex: Recommended Reading

Riedel, James, Jin Jin, and Gao Jian. 2004.
Investment, Financing Investment, and Growth in China. 30 August.

Wilson, Dominic, Roopa Purushothaman, and
Themistoklis Fiotakis. 2004. The Goldman Sachs
Group, Inc. The BRICs and Global Markets :
Crude, Cars and Capital. Global Economic Paper
No. 118. 14 October.
World Economic Forum. 2005. The Global
Competitiveness Report 2005-2006. Geneva.


China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

This publication is a result of substantial research

Prof. Lisheng Dong, Chinese Academy of

during the last year. The project team thanks the

Joachim Döring, Siemens AG

many people who responded to our invitation

Jalaj A. Dani, Asian Paints

to join and who gave so generously of their time,

Prof. Soumitra Dutta, INSEAD – Europe

to think hard about the future, and we appreciate

Joseph Fong, Hewlett-Packard

their commitment, discipline and courage.

Dr Tim Forsyth, London School of Economics

Prof. Jun Fu, Peking University

and thank each of the more than one hundred

Stephen Gerlach, Santos Ltd

academic, social, government and business

Robert Go, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

and a number of workshops and interviews held

Social Sciences

energy and insights. They took up the challenge

While it is not possible to acknowledge


leaders who have been involved and offered their

Joseph (Joe) Golden, Accel Partners

diverse perspectives and insights, the project

William Hildreth, Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

team would like to offer its special gratitude to

Dr Pongsak Hoontrakul, Chulalongkorn

the following :


i) Business, academic, social and government leaders who have actively


participated in or led discussions at our various workshop in Beijing, London, Paris, Shanghai,

Prof. Ping Huang, Chinese Academy of Social
Daniel Jensen, Advanced Micro Devices
China Ltd

Singapore and Washington:

Hirotsugu Koike, Nihon Keizai Shimbun
Europe Ltd

Duane Kuang, Intel Capital Asia Pacific

Jonathan Anderson, UBS AG Hong Kong

Prof. Jean-Pierre Lehmann, IMD International

Prof. Chong-En Bai, Tsinghua University

Steven R. Leonard, Symantec Corporation

Philip Bowring, International Herald Tribune

Alan Leong, Computer Associates

Jeffrey G. Bullwinkel, Microsoft Hong Kong Ltd

Robert D. Campbell, PricewaterhouseCoopers

Dr Shuhe (John) Li, SAP China

Michael J. Cannon-Brookes, IBM

Prof. Weisen Li, Fudan University

Dominick Cavuoto, Unisys Corporation

James D. Lin, Infosys Technologies (Shanghai)

Amanda J. Litzow, Computer Associates

Dr Gary Liu, China Europe International

Cadol Cheung, Intel Capital Asia Pacific

Henry Low, Solectron Corporation

Nathaniel Cheang, Arrow Electronics Asia Ltd

James Chen, Arrow Electronics China Ltd

International Inc.

Company Ltd

Prof. Shuaihua Cheng, Shanghai Municipal
Government Development Research Center

International Inc.

& Fudan University

Business School

Wai Chiew Chik, Singapore Economic

The Hon. Penny Low, Parliament of Singapore

Development Board

John McLean, British Telecom Ltd

Eric Y. Mahe, Computer Associates

Lee Aun Choong, Arrow Electronics Asia Ltd


Laiyong Chee, Accenture

Greg Collins, Solectron Corporation

International Inc.

Dr Horst Melcher, Deutsche Telekom KK

China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

Gengshu Miao, China Minmetals Corporation

Prof. William Mobley, China Europe

Prof. John Wong, National University of

International Business School

Charles Wu, IBM

Tan Sri Dr Noordin Sopiee, Institute of Strategic


Tim Herman Wu, Avaya (China)


and International Studies

Armen Ovanessoff, Accenture

Prof. Jiahua Pan, Chinese Academy of Social

Communication Co. Ltd

Dr Richard T. Pascale, Templeton College,

Oxford University

Prof. Michael Yahuda, London School of

Prof. Arthur Yeung, China Europe International
Business School

Prof. Jackie Y. Ying, Institute of Bioengineering

Prof. Gordon Redding, INSEAD – Europe

Simon Yu, Arrow Asia Pac Ltd

Prof. Lawrence Saez, London School of

Prof. Yongding Yu, Chinese Academy of

Dipender Saluja, Cadence Design Systems

Dr Linda Yueh, London School of Economics


Prof. Juwei Zhang, Chinese Academy of

Thomas E. Schodorf, BMC Software

and Nanotechnology


Social Sciences

Social Sciences

Prof. Hellmut Schutte, INSEAD – Asia Campus

Prof. Sun Zhe, Fudan University

Gary Shainberg, British Telecom Plc

Zhi-Yong Zhou, British Telecom Plc

Prof. Jonathan Story, INSEAD – Europe

Prof. Ling Zhu, Chinese Academy of Social



Cheng-Yaw Sun, Hewlett-Packard

Prof. Lijian Sun, Fudan University

ii) Experts and academics for their research

Gyan Patrick Tamby, GeoPost International

and contribution to the scenario publication:

Management & Development Holding GmbH

Simon S. Tay, Singapore Institute of

Dr Valérie Engammare, Fabrice Lehmann
& Prof. Jean-Pierre Lehmann, The Evian

International Affairs

Group at IMD

Vineet Toshniwal, Infosys Technologies Ltd

Sreedhar Venkiteswaran, Wipro Technologies

Dr Linda Yueh, London School of Economics

Prof. Georg von Krogh, University of St Gallen

Prof. Lisheng Dong, Chinese Academy of

Prof. Jianmao Wang, China Europe
International Business School

Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu

Sin-Yaw Wang, Sun Microsystems China Ltd

Dr Fan He, Chinese Academy of Social

Prof. Yizhou Wang, Chinese Academy of

Dr Elisabeth Economy, Council on Foreign

Dr Bin Zhang, Chinese Academy of Social

Social Sciences

Social Sciences


Prof. Douglas Webber, INSEAD – Asia

Ming Wei, Advanced Micro Devices Inc.


Peter Weiss, Siemens Limited China
Prof. Steven White, INSEAD – Asia Campus


China and the World: Scenarios to 2025
Project Team Members

China and the World 2025 : Project Team Members
The project team comprises the following individuals :
Project Director :

Alexander Van de Putte, World Economic Forum

Project Manager :

Alia Karaouni, World Economic Forum

World Economic Forum
Core research team:


Margareta Drzeniek

Simon Abdul Kudus

Kristel Van der Elst

Yu Liu

Sandrine Perrollaz

Alan P. Larson

Preeti Sinha

Augusto Lopez-Claros

Vidhi Tambiah

Simon Mulcahy
Alex Wong
Deming Zhu

Managing Director, World Scenario Series :
Ged Davis, World Economic Forum
Scenario champions and thought leaders :
Prof. Jean-Pierre Lehmann, IMD International
Prof. Jianmao Wang, China Europe International Business School
Dr Linda Yueh, London School of Economics
Scenario writers :

Esther Eidinow
Adrian Taylor

Editor :

Danielle Carpenter Sprungli

Economic modelling : Moody’s
Creative design :

Kamal Kimaoui, World Economic Forum
Yu Liu, World Economic Forum
ComStone - Geneva

World Economic Forum 72…...

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...Computer The word'computer ' is an old word that has changed its meaning several times in the last few centuries.The Techencyclopedia(2003) defines computer as " a general purpose machine that processes data according to a set of instructions that are stored internally either temorarily or permanently" Computer history The trem history means past events.It indicates the gradual development of computers.Here we will discuss how this extraordinary machine has reached of it's apex. In the begining............................... The history of computers starts out about 2000 years ago, at the birth of the 'abacus' a wooden rack holding two horizontal wires with breads strung on them.Just like our present computer,abacus also considered a digit as a singal or codeo and processed the calculation. Blasie Pascal ists usually credited to building the first digital computer in 1942.It added numbers to help his father.In 1671,Gottofried Wilhelm Von Leibniz invented a computer that was built in 1694.It could add,and, after changing somethings around,multiply. Charles Babbage: A serious of very intersting developement in computer was started in Cambridge,England,by Charles Babbage, a mathmatics proffessor.In 1982,Babbge realized that many lng calculations,espically those need to make mathematical tabes ,were really a series of predictable actions that were constantly repated.From this he suspected that it......

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...The computers process information's that come in all shapes and sizes from any fields so accurately that, some people may call these "Informatics"— The Science of Informal ion Processing, i.e. the methods of recording, manipulating and retrieving information's. It may be from a mathematical equation to a company's work-force necessary to produce a payroll or from meteorological department to forecast tomorrow's weather or from space research to project a new space craft. The following characteristics that make the computers very popular for its multifarious uses may give the befitting reply. Speed First, the computers are regarded as high speed calculators. They can process voluminous data within a fraction of second which no human being could do earlier. If we want tomorrow's forecast today, meteorologists can use the computers for necessary calculations and analyses. The units of speed of a computer are the microsecond, the nano (10)-9 second and even the picot second. Storage As human brain can store the knowledge in memory and can able to recall it, the Central Processing Unit (CPU) of a computer can do the same job without any failure. But the internal memory of CPU is only large enough to retain a certain amount of information. So, to store each and every information inside the computer, an Auxiliary or Secondary Storage Device is being attached outside the memory of the CPU. Accuracy The computers are much popular due to their high speed along with......

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