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Northern Aero Report

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Nothern Aero Loyalty Program
Einführung In der nachfolgenden Fallstudie wird das Kundentreueprogramm (Loyalty Program) der Northern Aero, einer der ältesten europäischen Fluggesellschaften, vorgestellt. Es handelt sich um eine bescheidene aber gewinnbringende und wachsende Airline, die in Skandinavien gegründet wurde. Das aktuelle Problem, dass Kunden nicht mehr treu sind, Kundentreueprogramme jedoch sehr teuer sind, beschäftigt auch die Northern Aero. Beispielsweise betragen die Kosten eines Kunden, der sich in eine der Northern Aero Flughafen Lounges aufhält, etwa 50 Dollar. Aufgrund dieser verhältnismäßig enormen Kosten stellt sich der aktuelle CMO der Firma die Frage, ob es das wert war, ob die Airline das Geld für Marketing und das Loyalitätsprogramm sinnvoll und vernünftig investiert hat und ob man mit weniger Ausgaben eventuell mehr erreichen hätte können. Um diese Fragen beantworten zu können hat er zusammen mit einer Gruppe des Costumer Relationship Managements und IT-Beratern der Firma Zenith ein Projekt erarbeitet. Dieses Projekt wird im Laufe der Fallstudie erläutert, der Begriff Customer Lifetime Value näher gebracht, sowie konkrete Ergebnisse mithilfe eines Modells dargestellt. Hintergrundinformationen zur Flugindustrie Die Flugindustrie erlitt im ersten Jahrzehnt des 21. Jahrhunderts

eine schwere Krise. Gründe hierfür waren zum ersten die Terroranschläge auf das World Trade Center am 11. September 2001. Die Menschen hatten Angst zu fliegen, welche sich in einem enormen Rückgang in der Flugindustrie niederschlug. Auch die Kosten für Airlines wurden durch verstärkte Sicherheitskontrollen höher, was sich anschließend auf die Flugkosten übertrug. In den Jahren 2002 und 2003 beeinflusste die SARS Pandemie die Flugindustrie negativ, da Menschen auch durch sie verängstigt waren zu Fliegen. Der Anstieg der Gaspreise, der hauptsächlich durch den Irakkrieg hervorgerufen wurde, und ein wirtschaftlicher Abschwung griff die Flugindustrie erneut an. Firmen kürzten ihre Ausgaben, vor allem Kosten für Geschäftsreisen. Durch die schnelle Entwicklung und Weiterentwicklung von Technologien konnten Reisende die Preise verschiedener Airlines einfach vergleichen und die günstigsten Flüge leichter finden. Technologien wie Videokonferenzen machten Geschäftsreisen teilweise überflüssig. Des Weiteren ermutigte die Marktöffnung der Flugindustrie, in den frühen 1980er Jahren, viele Konkurrenten in das Fluggeschäft einzusteigen. All diese Faktoren verkleinerten die Gewinnspannen der Fluggesellschaften und viele gingen nach dem Jahr 2000 Bankrott.
Stefanie BÖHM, Lisa LINTNER, Valentin PLANK , Yasmin TRAXLER, Benedikt ZECHA 2 Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Auch Northern Aero hatte eine schwere Zeit hinter sich, ist aber mittlerweile wieder profitabel. Die Firma besaß 75 Frachtflugzeuge und kaufte weitere 25 dazu, für weitere Destinationen und die erhöhte Nachfrage. Im Jahr 1999 trat Northern Aero ,,OneWorld’’, einem Bündnis verschiedener Carrier, bei, um ihren Kunden weitere Ziele durch Allianzpartner anbieten zu können. Seit 1997 bietet die Airline Online Reservierungsdienste und seit 2002 elektronische Check-Ins an. Außerdem informieren Handynachrichten die Kunden

heutzutage über bestätigte Reservierungen und erwartete Verspätungen. Das ,,Vielflieger-Programm’’ der Northern Aero Während der turbulenten Zeiten der Flugindustrie positionieren sich einige Fluggesellschaften als Billig- Airlines, andere differenzierten sich von der Konkurrenz und konzentrierten sich auf wachsende Kundentreue, so die Northern Aero. 1992 führte die Gesellschaft das „Frequent-Flyer-Program“ ein, welches Northern Aero’s Vielflieger in verschiedene Segmente hinsichtlich der geflogenen Meilen teilte, nicht aber der Preise der jeweiligen Flüge. Zunächst die Silver Members, die mindestens einmal in den letzten 12 Monaten mit der Fluggesellschaft geflogen sind, jedoch weniger als 25.000 Meilen. Kunden, die mehr als 25.000 Meilen mit der Airline flogen, aber weniger als 100.000 Meilen, wurden dem Segment Gold Members zugeordnet. Platinum Members wurden als jene Reisende definiert, welche im letzten Jahr mehr als 100.000 Meilen mit der Airline flogen. In der Datenbank des FrequentFlyer-Programms der Fluggesellschaft sind ungefähr 58.000 aktive und früher aktive Mitglieder registriert, inklusive aller Transaktionen die seit 1992 zwischen ihnen und der Airline oder Partnern durchgeführt wurden. Für ihre Treue erhalten die Vielflieger Belohnungen wie Vorrang während des Einsteigens, Zugang zu reservierten Loungen der Airline, gratis Upgrades sowie besondere Behandlung.
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE (CLV) Der Customer Lifetime Value ist der abgezinste monetäre Wert eines Kunden über eine bestimmte Anzahl an Perioden. • R = Erlös

• C = Kosten, um den Kunden im Unternehmen zu halten 1 1+r Die Formel kann noch um die Variablen p und A erweitert werden, wobei • p = die Wahrscheinlichkeit, mit der der Kunde dem Unternehmen „treu“ bleibt (also nicht zu einem anderen Unternehmen wechselt) und • A = die einmaligen Kosten, um den Kunden in das Unternehmen zu holen abbilden. In Aufgabe 1 und 2 sollten wir den CLV anhand des derzeitigen „Loyalty Programs“ • für den Durchschnittskunden im jeweiligen Segment (Customer Lifetime Value) und • für alle Kunden (Customer Equity) unter Berücksichtigung eines 15%igen und unter Berücksichtigung eines 40%igen Abzinsungsfaktors (r) berechnen und die Ergebnisse miteinander vergleichen.
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

d = Abzinsungsfaktor Da sich die Interaktionen des Kunden mit dem Unternehmen über mehrere Perioden zieht, werden die Wertbeiträge des Kunden ab Periode 2 abgezinst (um einen gegenwertigen Wert des Kunden zu erhalten) und zwar so lange der Kunde voraussichtlich mit dem Unternehmen in Verbindung steht.

CURRENT LOYALTY PROGRAM

Im derzeitigen „Loyalty Program“ wird in den einzelnen Segmenten noch nicht zwischen „top 20%“ und „low 80%“ unterschieden. Die Aufteilung der Segmente erfolgt nur nach der Anzahl an geflogenen Meilen. Die Kosten im derzeitigen „Loyalty Program“ werden also noch nicht an den Wert der Kunden angepasst.
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Die Tabelle gibt das derzeitige „Loyalty Program“ wieder. Links oben (grüner Kasten) sieht man die Segmente, in die die Kunden eingeteilt wurden. Rechts oben die Ausgaben für das „Loyalty Program“ pro Kunde (C – roter Kreis) und den Erlös pro Kunde (R – blauer Kreis) im jeweiligen Segment. Unten sieht man die „Transition Matrix“ die angibt, wie viel Prozent der Kunden unter diesen Voraussetzungen in den einzelnen Segmenten bleiben bzw. in andere Segmente wechseln (p).

Gibt man diese Werte in die Formel für den CLV ein erhält man

folgende Ergebnisse: Die CLV und die Customer Equity Werte sinken mit der Erhöhung des Abzinsungsfaktors. Resultat Ein erhöhter Abzinsungsfaktor gewichtet gegenwärtige Erträge höher und ist somit kurzfristig ausgerichtet. Durch den Abzinsungsfaktor von 40% ist ein Euro, den mir ein loyaler Kunde morgen gibt, heute nur 60 Cent wert. Er suggeriert, dass es sich nicht auszahlt heute Geld mit hohem Wert auszugeben, um morgen Geld mit geringem Wert von „loyalen“ Kunden zurückzubekommen. Des Weiteren bildet ein hoher Abzinsungsfaktor ein Szenario ab, in dem die Kunden mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit in den Folgeperioden die Beziehungen zu dem Unternehmen abbrechen oder zu einem andern Unternehmen wechseln. Der Wert des Kunden nimmt unter Berücksichtigung dieses Risikos daher ab. Umgekehrt verhält es sich bei einem niedrigen Abzinsungsfaktor. In Aufgabe 3 wird der ROI des Kundenbindungsprogramms berechnet. Der ROI sagt aus, inwiefern sich die Investition über die folgenden Jahre als rentabel erweist. Anders ausgedrückt, sind die zusätzlich erwirtschafteten Deckungsbeiträge des Programms höher als seine Kosten. Um dies herauszufinden werden die abgezinsten Deckungsbeiträge jeder Kundengruppe (Customer Lifetime Value) mit und ohne Kundenbindungsprogramm berechnet. Dann wird die Differenz zwischen den Ergebnissen genommen und der erste Schritt zum ROI ist gemacht. Die Ergebnisse sind in der Tabelle unten ersichtlich.
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Im nächsten Schritt werden die Gesamtkosten/Jahr des Loyalty Programms berechnet. Diese müssen dann nach folgender Formel Abgezinst werden: Mit diesem Rentenbarwert (4.236.603,31) kann man nun den ROI berechnen: 6853521/4236603.31 = 1.6176924055700652 Dieses Ergebnis bedeutet dass das 1,6 fache der LP-Kosten als CLV zurückkommt.
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Customer lifetime value Differenz €456.745

Loyalty Program C €150

€940.965 €771.102 €1.640.390 €1.442.790 €1.341.997 €259.532

€150 €25 €25 €10 €10

€2

€0

€0

€6.853.521

Stefanie BÖHM, Lisa LINTNER, Valentin PLANK , Yasmin TRAXLER, Benedikt ZECHA 7

Bei Aufgabe 4 geht es um das Ergebnis bzw. die Optimierung der Consultingfirma Zenith. Dabei waren folgende Fragen zu beantworten: 1. Was empfiehlt Zenith der Airline?

2. 3.

Gibt es einen Anstieg in den Kosten? Wie sollte sich das Budget zusammensetzen?

Ergebnis von Zenith Zur Optimierung des Kundentreueprogramms hat Zenith eine „Segment Description“ und eine „Transition Matrix“ eingeführt. Zusätzlich hat Zenith die allgemeinen Segmente wie Platinum, Silber und Gold in Subkategorien unterteilt, nämlich in top 20% und low 80%. Unter Setzung all dieser Maßnahmen ist es zu einer Investitionssteigerung bei den „higher- value“ Kunden gekommen und einer Desinvestition bei den inaktiven und low 80% silver Kunden. Aktuelle/ laufende Kosten: Segment description Platinum (top 20%) Platinum (low 80%) Gold (top 20%) Gold (low 80%) Silver (top 20%) Silver (low 80%) Inactive customers Lost customers Gesamtkosten Kosten nach Optimierung: Segments / Segment description Platinum (top 20%) Platinum (low 80%) Gold (top 20%) Gold (low 80%) Silver (top 20%) Silver (low 80%) Inactive customers Lost customers Gesamtkosten
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Number of customers 200

Loyalty Program Costs $360

800 1100 4300 6800 26600 18200 0

$225 $74 $29 $15 $0 $0 $0 560.100

Number of customers 200 800

Loyalty Program Costs $150 $150

1100 4300 6800 26600 18200 0

$25 $25 $10 $10 $2 $0 655.400

Resultat Kostensenkung bei gleichzeitiger Segmentoptimierung durch Optimierung des Kundentreueprogramms. Ebenfalls zur Optimierung beigetragen hat die „Segment Description“ und die „Transition Matrix“. Bei der „Segment Description“ hat Zenith folgende Unterteilungen vorgenommen: Anzahl der Konsumenten, Gewinnspanne, Marketingkosten für die nächste Periode, Durchschnittskosten pro Jahr, Ertrag pro Passagier und Mile und die Kosten des Kundenoptimierungsprogramms. Segment description Segments / Segment description Platinum (top 20%) Platinum (low 80%) Gold (top 20%)

Gold (low 80%) Silver (top 20%) Silver (low 80%) Inactive customers Lostcustomers 0 $0 $0 - ¢0,0 $0 $0
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Number of customers 200 800

Gross margins $4.200 $2.070

Marketing costs, next period $0 $0

Average Miles per Year 240.000 135.000

Passeng Yield per ¢1,9 ¢1,7

1100 4300 6800 26600 18200

$1.051 $426 $81 $26 $0

$0 $0 $0 $0 $0

75.000 35.000 8.000 2.400 -

¢1,5 ¢1,3 ¢1,2 ¢1,1 ¢0,0

Transition Matrix
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Last period / Next period Platinum (top 20%) Platin um (low 80%) Gold (top 20%) Gold (low 80%) Silver (top 20%) Silv er (low 80% Inactive customer s Lost customer s

)

Platinum (top 20%) 54% 18% 5% 3% 1% 1% 18% 0% Platinum (low 80%) 17% 35% 11% 8% 3% 2% 24% 0%

Gold (top 20%) 5% 13% 35% 10% 8% 2% 27% 0% Gold (low 80%) 1% 3% 11% 29% 10% 8% 38% 0% Silver (top 20%) 0% 1%

4% 10% 36% 9% 40% 0% Silver (low 80%) 0% 0% 1% 2% 9% 26% 62% 0% Inactive customers 0% Lost customers 0% 0% 1% 3% 8% 0% 89% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% Von den insgesamt Platinum (top 20%) Kunden im Vorjahr

werden sich in der nächsten Periode noch 54% in derselben Kategorie wiederfinden. In der folgenden Aufgabe 5 wurde gefragt ob wir die die von Zenith vorgeschlagene Optimierung so übernehmen würden, falls nein wie würde unsere Strategie ausschauen? Aufgrund von diversen Faktoren haben wir uns entschieden, dass LP nicht nur auf hochklassige Kundensegmente auszurichten sondern auch Kunden niedriger Segmente darin zu berücksichtigen:

Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Loyalty Program Costs alt €360 €225 €74 €29 €15 €0 €0

Loyalty Program Costs gesamt €72.000 €180.000 €81.400 €124.700 €102.000 €0 €0 €0 €560.100

€0

Loyalty Program Costs neu €300 €200 €50 €50 €5 €5 €0 €0

Loyalty Program Costs gesamt €60.000 €160.000 €55.000 €215.000 €34.000 €133.000 €0 €0 €657.000

Dies hat zur Folge, dass die Gesamtkosten des LP auf dem ursprünglichen Niveau bleiben, aber trotzdem der CLV auf das neue Niveau steigt oder sogar noch gesteigert werden können. Die Resultate sind, dass Kunden mit einem hohen Relationship Value dem Unternehmen erhalten bleiben, Kleinkunden und Neukunden mehr Anreiz gegeben wird dem Unternehmen treu zu bleiben oder in höhere Segmente aufzusteigen. Bei Großkunden werden höhere DB durch niedrigere Kosten des LP erzielt.

Abschließend (Aufgabe 6) analysieren wir, was Nothern Aero bisher erreicht bzw. was genau die Analyse der Fluglinie gebracht hat. Wie man anhand der Auswertung nach der Optimierung von Zenith gut erkennen kann, wurde die Zahl an Wechsel innerhalb der Kundensegmente verringert. Eine längere Kundenbindung je nach Segment wurde somit geschaffen. Auf Grund dieser Optimierung wurde ebenfalls ein Budget von insgesamt 95.300 $ freigesetzt. Dieses freigesetzte Kapitel könnte nun effizient in den Segmenten eingesetzt werden, die noch Potential nach oben hin (mehr Kunden) aufweisen. Man könnte jedoch auch versuchen die zwei stärksten Segmente, Silver (low 80%) mit 26.600 Kunden und Incactive customers mit 18.200 Kunden, mit zusätzlichen Marketingaktivitäten auf die höheren Segmente nach und nach auf zu teilen. Gewünschtes Resultat hierfür - mehr Flüge werden gebucht. Anhand dieser Überlegungen stellt sich nun die Frage, was getan werden müsste, um in diesen beiden Segmenten mehr Flüge bzw. generell mehr Buchungen zu bewegen. Eine Möglichkeit wäre, eine Umfrage unter inaktiven und aktiven Fluggästen durchzuführen. Mögliche Fragen wären beispielsweise:

!Wie oft sind Sie im letzten Jahr mit Nothern Aero geflogen?
Bezogen auf den Zeitraum „heute vor einem Jahr“ bis „jetzt“.

! !

Wenn Sie die Möglichkeit hätten, alle Flüge über Nothern Aero zu buchen, würden Sie dies tun? Wenn ja, warum – wenn nein, ebenfalls warum. Wie zufrieden sind Sie mit Nothern Aero? Bezogen auf Preis/Leistung und Service.

Des Weiteren könnte das von ZENITH zur Verfügung gestellte Kapital für maßgeschneiderte Angebote für Nicht-Business Kunden bzw. Nicht-Vielflieger Kunden eingesetzt werden, um diese nach und nach in höhere Segmente umzuschichten. Natürlich sollte auch überlegt werden, was Nothern Aero in Zukunft besser machen könnte bzw. welche Veränderungen von Vorteil wären. Northern Aero könnte ihr Frequent-Flyer-Program ergänzen und zusätzliche Leistungen anbieten.
Northern Aero Loyalty Program

Es könnte die Möglichkeit geboten werden, durch Kooperationen mit diversen Hotels ebenfalls Meilen zu sammeln. Diese Hotels werden zuvor festgelegt und für potentielle Kunden genau aufgelistet. Zusätzlich zu der Möglichkeit mit Meilen Flüge und auch günstigere Angebote zu erwerben, könnte Nothern Aero auch vielfältige Bonusprogramme anbieten. Eine Vielzahl von Partnern würde beispielsweise einem Northern Aero Kunden ermöglichen seinen Mietwagen günstiger zu buchen, im Flughafen-Shop diverse Prozente zu genießen oder einen Preisnachlass bei der Buchung eines Partnerhotels zu erlangen. Auch diverse Freizeitangebote in den jeweiligen Destinationen wären denkbar. Miles & More1 – das wohl bekannteste und größte Vielfliegerprogramm Europas bietet bereits ein breites Spektrum an Bonusprogrammen und zusätzlichen Eintauschmöglichkeiten an. Natürlich muss Northern Aero auch weiterhin mit der Zeit gehen. Nach der Einführung der cell phones messages könnte man nun auch einen App für Smartphones kreieren. Diese ermöglicht es Flüge jederzeit unterwegs zu suchen, diverse Angebote innerhalb der Fluglinie zu vergleichen, zu buchen und den

Kontostand seiner Meilen abzufragen.

Erfolg besteht darin, dass man genau die Fähigkeiten hat, die im Moment gefragt sind.
Henry Ford (*30.07.1863-†07.04.1947), amerik. Unternehmer
1

http://www.miles-andmore.com/online/portal/mam/de/program/information?nodeid=2492107&l=de&cid =18002 Northern Aero Loyalty Program…...

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